汇丰HSBC：亚洲油气行业研究：中国天然气供需再平衡之路-251215（英文版）（24页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ The 22

2、ndedition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewPushingthe accelerator into2026 Chinas natural gas story continues to evolve alongside developments in electrification and green liquid hydrocarbons With more Russian gas pipelines to be built,a post-2030 supply surplus is possible,depending on macro

3、industrial demand Pricing pressure good for utilities/infra operators:Buy rated stocks include ENN(raise TP),Kunlun,PetroChina,GAIL Risk of oversupply looms:Gas demand in China may grow at a slower pace than GDP due to a shift towards electrification,while the transition from coal-to-gas is peaking,

4、in our view.We now project gas demand could peak by 2035 at 563 bcm/y,which is up to 5 years earlier than expected by the state-owned oil/gas majors(c620 bcm/y).In this environment,LNG imports would still need to expand until mid-2030s,limited by domestic production within China.However,in a scenari

5、o where energy transition(e.g.electrification,etc)and/or piped imports from Russia ramp up quicker than expected,availability of gas could potentially end up looser after 2030,reducing reliance on LNG imports.This report examines various demand-supply scenarios,considering factors including industri

6、al output,demand for gas-power,and development in green liquid hydrocarbons.In Europe and elsewhere,our Global Oil/Gas research team sees a potential supply glut in 2026 and beyond;hence,moderation in pricing(Gas markets,1 Dec 2025).Influx of Russian gas into China:Russia is poised to be a major and