德勤（Deloitte）：2026年全球经济展望报告（英文版）（34页）.pdf

1、ARTICLE62-MIN READ19 DECEMBER 2025Deloi?e Global Economics Research CenterGlobal economic outlook 2026Deloitte economists discuss the trends shaping the 2026 trajectories of over 25 countriesForeword from Deloi?es chief global economistAs anticipated in our last global economic outlook,elections aro

2、und the world have driven notable policychanges that altered the trajectories of in?ation,borrowing costs,currency values,and trade and capital?ows in 2025.One signi?cant development was that the United States raised signi?cant barriers to trade,disrupting supply chains and creating?nancial market v

3、olatility.Since then,it has struck trade deals withnumerous countries,reinstating some predictability in those trading relationships,albeit at higher costs.Restrictive US trade policy has also pushed other countries closer together,with numerous trade dealsbeing inked among non-US countries.In 2026,

4、we expect to see the e?ects of these global policy shifts more clearly.Governments are adaptingto a new geopolitical reality and adjusting their?scal and structural policy plans accordingly.This willlikely become more apparent in the new year.In addition,several countries are competing to remain att

5、he frontier of technological innovation,particularly in arti?cial intelligence,while others are trying not tofall further behind.Signi?cant investments to develop this innovation ecosystem are likely to continue in2026.However,there is a risk that related spending has occurred too quickly and that a

6、 downwardadjustment could be on the horizon.In the following sections,economists from Deloittes?rms o?er their views on their respective countriesoutlooks for the coming year.We hope that readers will?nd these outlooks interesting,insightful,andhelpful.Your feedback is most welcome,and our economist