【中信期货】原油油轮年度展望-260115（18页）.pdf

1、重要提示：本报告非重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2026-01-15 Annual Outlook on Crude Oil Tanker Market 原油原油油轮年度油轮年度展望展望 摘要摘要 Abstract 2025 crude-tanker market experienced a strong year,but with recent sharp correction.The Middle EastFar East TD3C route averaged USD 57.5k/day,up 64.7%YoY,while seaborne crude demand grew solidly.Fleet s

4、upply stayed tight;sanctions and floating storage were the short-term swing factors.Global crude-tanker capacity rose only 0.7%.Reviewing fleet size,age profile,sanction list,floating barrels,sailing speed and canal transits,we see a persistently snug mid-term supply picture,with sanctions and stora

5、ge adding near-term tension.The Venezuelan affair is a modest immediate negative,but geopolitical risk premium underpins freight fundamentals.2026 outlook:volatile but still tilted to the upside.Freight has corrected sharply,yet global liftings should rebound after the Middle-East Ramadan,and sancti

6、oned-driven tonnage scarcity will linger.We expect 2026 to trade choppy-to-firm.Track geopolitical flare-upsthey can jolt volatility.Key risks:tariff policy,geopolitical conflict,extreme weather.2025 年原油油轮市场表现偏强，近期则显著回调。年原油油轮市场表现偏强，近期则显著回调。中东-远东的 TD3C 航线日租金均值达到 5.75 万美元/天，同比增 64.7%。原油海运需求量整体实现较强劲增长。