亚开行：中国的长期增长前景（英文版）（68页）.pdf

1、ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City1550 Metro Manila,Philippineswww.adb.orgThe Long-Term Growth Prospects of the Peoples Republic of ChinaEconomic growth in the Peoples Republic of China has moderated over the past decade,even before the coronavirus disease(COVI

2、D-19)pandemic.A critical question is to which level of economic growth the country will return to after COVID-19 and,more broadly,how its long-term growth prospects are,given a rapidly aging society,the ongoing high dependence of growth on investment,and a changed international environment.This pape

3、r estimates the countrys potential gross domestic product growth up to 2040 based on a Cobb-Douglas production function and provides policy recommendations on structural reforms to boost potential growth.About the Asian Development BankADB is committed to achieving a prosperous,inclusive,resilient,a

4、nd sustainable Asia and the Pacific,while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty.Established in 1966,it is owned by 68 members 49 from the region.Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue,loans,equity investments,guarantees,grants,and technical

5、 assistance.ADB EAST ASIA WORKING PAPER SERIESNO.54December 2022THE LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS OF THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINADominik Peschel and Wenyu LiuASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKADB East Asia Working Paper SeriesThe Long-Term Growth Prospects of the Peoples Republic of China Dominik Peschel and Weny

6、u LiuNo.54|December 2022Dominik Peschel is head of the Economics Unit at the Asian Development Banks Resident Mission in the Peoples Republic of China.Wenyu Liu is a consultant at the Asian Development Banks Resident Mission in the Peoples Republic of China.Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO licen