德安华（Kroll）：2025年餐饮行业估值及并购交易报告（英文版）（31页）.pdf

1、2025 Year in ReviewIndustry InsightsRestaurant IndustryThe U.S.macroeconomic backdrop,heading into the end of 2025,continued to challenge the restaurant sector in both the operating and deal environments.The Federal Reserve delivered three 25bps interest rate cuts in 2025(75 bps total),with the last

2、 one signaling a“tougher rough ahead”for further reductions.This limited monetary easing,coupled with a softening labor market and rising unemployment,has stagnated growth in consumer discretionary income.Consumer spending patterns have consequently shifted:more dollars are flowing toward travel and

3、 experiences at the expense of restaurant consumption,as over 60%of travelers report being more discerning on their discretionary spend allocation to restaurants.M&A activity in the U.S.restaurant sector showed early momentum in 2025 but slowed markedly as the year progressed.After a strong deal pac

4、e in Q1,transaction flow stalled amid tariff-related volatility from March to May,when uncertainty prompted roughly 30%of companies to pause or revisit deals.While aggregate deal value is up year-over-year,deal volume has not rebounded.Globally,first-half 2025 M&A volumes were about 10%lower than in

5、 the same period of 2024 even as total deal value rose 15%,and in the restaurant sector,total transaction count declined roughly 30%,year-over-year through late 2025.Deals are still getting done,but the market is increasingly bifurcated:acquirers have grown more selective,focusing on high-quality ta

6、rgets and deferring or abandoning more“marginal”transactions.In parallel,refinancing activity has accelerated as private equity sponsors seek partial liquidity through dividend recapitalizations and address looming debt maturities from pandemic-era financing,reflecting heightened pressure to optimiz