韦莱韬悦（WTW）：2026年全球投资展望报告（英文版）（14页）.pdf

1、February 2026 2026 WTW.All rights reserved.Global Investment Outlook 2026REPORT RELEASE2 2026 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Contents3 Executive summaryOutlook at a glanceDynamic positioning:highlights5 Macro and market outlook for the major countriesU.S.:U.S.GDP to

2、 grow 2.5%in 2026;AI and fiscal spending boosts are the major driversEuroland:Germanys fiscal support and steady ECB policy bolster Euroland growth and equitiesJapan:Japans policies drive strong growth,investment,and tighter monetary conditions supporting the yenU.K.:Inflation is set to fall in 2026

3、,prompting rate cuts and supporting growth and gilt returnsCanada:Canada rebounds as fiscal and monetary policy impacts flow through;inflation coolsAustralia:Trend-like growth,a strong labor market and inflation easing;RBA likely range-bound but upside riskChina:Chinas 2026 focus tech self reliance

4、and tighter governance likely to produce near 5%growth 3 2026 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Outlook at a glanceSources:Bureau of Economic Analysis,LSEG Datastream,WTWSources:U.S.International Trade Commission,WTWA reshaping of investment,industries and flows from A

5、I is just startingCapital expenditure by the top 6 U.S.cloud companies,$million Sources:Goldman Sachs,WTWU.S.tariff rates encapsulate radical change in global trade relationshipsEffective tariff rate%2.305101520251911 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Effective tariff rate,%

6、Tariff rate(duties collected/total imports)Despite geopolitical volatility,we believe cyclical growth is likely to continueU.S.real GDP growth,QoQ annualized%-4%0%4%8%2122232425Private consumption,pptInvestment,pptGovt consumption,pptInventories,pptNet exports,pptGDP q/q%2026Federal ReserveAnalyst c