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1、The Evolution of Diningin 2022-Restaurants,Fast Food,and CoffeeShopsIntroRestaurants and bars have long served as community hubs-places for friends and familyto meet and celebrate a life event,for a first date,or just to see and be seen.And citieshave often been tied to their culinary scenes,which s

2、erve as more than just meeting spots,but can draw tourist crowds,reflect a local culture,or provide a space for emerging chefsto develop their identities.Restaurant chains realize that,with the plethora of online reviews,comparisons,andratings,they may need to offer something beyond just their produ

3、ct.Some are turning toenticing loyalty programs,while others are focusing on building their community presence.Many are taking a deep look at their business model,identifying their strengths to bettercapitalize on them,and finding their weak spots to try to improve on them.We identified five trends

4、redefining the restaurant space and examined how this sector isevolving,tapping into community resources,and adapting consumer desires and lookedat challenges the industry may be facing.This report dives into the restaurant industrysrecovery from a location analytics perspective to explore how the f

5、ield is adapting toconsumer needs,community desires,and post-pandemic realities.How is the Dining Space Faring?Recovery Patterns and the Return to NormalcyThe restaurant industry has long been one of the most challenging ones to break into.Asmany as 61%of restaurants fail within three years of openi

6、ng,as razor-thin margins makeit difficult for new restaurateurs to succeed.And the pandemic only made things moredifficult,with many restaurants forced to shutter permanently since the beginning ofCOVID-19.Others,however,pivoted and have successfully adapted to the new reality,including offering enh

7、anced drive-through and pick-up services,expanding deliveryoptions,and taking public health safety measures to allow diners back indoors.These efforts are reflected in the industrys dramatic recovery.In the spring of 2021,visitsto restaurants grew closer each month to their pre-pandemic numbers,and

8、July 2021marked the first month where restaurant foot traffic matched or exceeded pre-pandemiclevels.And even though Delta and Omicrons emergence during the latter half of 2021 sentvisits on a downward trend again,the year-over-two-year(Yo2Y)visit gap in January andFebruary 2022 did not grow as wide

9、 as it had in early 2021.For example,overall diningvisits were down 28.6%in a Yo2Y comparison in January of 2021,and down only 18.4%inJanuary of 2022.So despite Omicron,cold weather,and rising inflation and gas prices,dining visits are stillon a recovery path.As the weather warms and customers can d

10、ine outdoors again,there ishope that the sectors impressive recovery will continue its upward climb.The Space is Pulled Up by Coffee and BakeriesAs a whole,the industry is looking well positioned for a healthy recovery but visit patternsstill varied across different dining subcategories.Full service

11、 restaurants in particular(reflected below in purple)have struggled,with in-house dining heavily restricted for muchof the past two years.Meanwhile,the coffee and bakery space(green in the chart)outperformed all other categories,with visits in July,August,and October 21 exceeding2019 levels.Perhaps

12、the ease of grabbing a cup to go,or coffee shops position as a“thirdplace”serving hybrid and work-from-home(WFH)consumers helped boost these venuesfoot traffic.Bars and pubs(in yellow)have been recovering almost as well as coffee shops,with foottraffic in July and October 21 higher than in July and

13、October 19.The relative success ofcoffee shops and bars when compared to overall dining trends may be due to the relativelylow-pressure socializing environment these types of venues create,and the wider array ofneeds they can satisfy-from an early morning coffee to a midday meeting or an afternoonbr

14、eak from the home office.Investing in CommunitiesIn its simplest form,a coffee shop gives people their morning caffeine fix,but it can alsoprovide so much more than that.As a place where the same people tend to gather atsimilar times during the day,there is plenty of opportunity to use coffee shops

15、as aspringboard for developing relationships between locals,and as the perfect venue for acommunity meeting space.Starbucks Community StoresTo quantify the boost coffee shops can receive by also serving as community hubs,wecompared some Starbucks community stores to nearby non-community Starbucks ve

16、nues.Starbucks currently has around 150 Community Stores,and the company has stated itintends to open 1,000 Community Store locations by 2030.The Starbucks community stores are dedicated spaces with the stated goal of serving theircommunities by emphasizing local hiring,partnering with farmers and a

17、rtists in the area,and extending disability inclusion and access.The concept was first introduced in 2015 as away for Starbucks to enter lower-income neighborhoods in a way that would benefit boththe neighborhood and the Starbucks corporation.Over time,the concept has grown andexpanded to reflect ea

18、ch locations unique needs.For example,one store in Trenton,NJ,has organized open mic nights.In other stores,youth mentorship programs and the hiringof local artists to paint murals generate community engagement.We looked at two of these community stores,in Seattle,WA and in Dallas,TX,to see howthe f

19、oot traffic patterns compared to visits to neighboring Starbucks stores.We alsoanalyzed the performance of Starbucks community stores against Starbucks performancein the larger DMAs(Designated Market Areas)and states where these stores operate.Inboth cases,the community store outperformed relative t

20、o all the control groups.Starbucks Community Store-Seattle,WAIn January 2022,the community store on 16th Ave in White Center,Seattle,WA,(shown inpurple in the graph below)saw its Yo2Y foot traffic up by 11.6%,whereas Yo2Y visits to theneighboring Starbucks and average Yo2Y foot traffic in the DMA an

21、d state were down bydouble digits.Interestingly,although visits over-performed relative to the surrounding locations,theSeattle Community Stores True Trade Areas(TTAs-the geographic area from which acommunity generates the majority of its customers)was also the smallest.The Starbuckscommunity store

22、in White Center had a TTA of only 7.36 square miles,while nearbylocations on 25th Ave SW and 4th Ave S had TTAs of 16.49 square miles and 31.24 squaremiles,respectively.This indicates that the vast majority of visitors to the community store are neighborhoodlocals as opposed to commuters or resident

23、s of the next town over.The remarkable foottraffic coupled with the relatively small trade area shows that coffee shops do not have tocast a wide net to be successful instead,investing in the immediate surroundings andcommunity can also yield healthy returns.Starbucks Community Store-Dallas,TXAnothe

24、r case study is the Starbucks community store in Dallas,Texas,which has seenconsistent growth in foot traffic since its opening in 2018 including maintaining thisperformance throughout the pandemic.This growth is particularly impressive in context.Analyzing the change in Starbucks visits against the

25、 same December 2018 baseline for thecommunity store,the nearby locations average,the Dallas DMA,and Texas as a wholeshows that Starbucks foot traffic is down in all the control groups even as the Dallascommunity store thrives.The relative strength of these stores shows just how much value a business

26、 can get out offocusing on the local level.Prioritizing collaborations with local businesses,providingemployment opportunities,and consciously cultivating community engagement does notjust benefit the locals it also sets the coffee shop up for business success.Defining the“Out”in“Eating Out”Inflatio

27、n rates have recently begun to rise worldwide,and the United States is feeling theimpact.Gas prices have also hit historic highs over the past few months,and consumershave been adjusting their dining habits accordingly.These changes may not only impacthow often people go out to grab a bite,but also

28、how far they are willing to drive for theirmeal.We took a closer look at the data to see how these factors may be driving diningtrends.Gas Prices Impact Dining HabitsWhile many restaurants suffered due to pandemic restrictions and shutdowns,one chainsmode of operation proved very successful.As their

29、 name implies,SONIC Drive-In offeredcustomers the best dining experience by COVID standards with many people reluctant topotentially expose themselves to COVID when dining out,eating in ones car suddenlyproved highly appealing.But as people have gotten used to life with COVID and with thenew challen

30、ge posed by rising gas prices,the draw that once brought in customers maynow be keeping them away.Shorter Drives to the Drive-InFebruary 2022 saw the smallest Yo2Y increase since 2020.And its not just overall visits thathave fallen Q1 2022 also saw a dip in the distances customers are traveling to r

31、eachSONIC Drive-In venues.This is illustrated by consumer behavior data from the top twoSONIC Drive-In locations in New York,which shows a significant rise in the share of visitorsdriving less than five miles to reach the venue.In Q1 2022,41.1%of visitors traveled less than five miles to reach the E

32、ast Meadow,NYlocation up from 38.4%in Q3 and Q4 of 2021.In North Babylon,NY,44.8%of visitorstraveled less than five miles to reach the restaurant in Q1,up from only 38.2%of visitors inQ3 2021.And in both locations,the share of visitors traveling 10 miles or more hasdropped significantly.This means t

33、hat the drop in overall visits is likely coming from SONICDrive-In patrons living further away who decided to forego their trips to the drive-in untilprices level out.Diners Prefer Staying LocalThe fast food category is not the only one feeling the impact of high gas prices full servicerestaurant vi

34、sitors are also driving shorter distances to get to their destinations.Forexample,The Cheesecake Factory in Pittsburgh,PA saw the share of visitors traveling lessthan five miles increase to 25.6%in Q1 2022,compared with just 22.4%in Q3 2021.Similarly,the number of visitors driving less than five mil

35、es to reach The CheesecakeFactory in Cleveland,OH has risen from 20.4%in Q4 2021 to 22.5%in Q1 2022.At the sametime,the share of visitors who had previously been willing to drive over 30 miles to dine atThe Cheesecake Factory declined from 35.7%to 31.1%for Pittsburgh and from 33.3%to25.6%for Clevela

36、nd between Q3 2021 and Q1 2022.These numbers seem to indicate that more and more,customers who are looking to dineout are opting to stay local when choosing where to eat.Rightsizing Done RightRestaurant Chains Optimizing Store FleetsA number of dining concepts have scaled back their physical footpri

37、nt over the past coupleof years,with the pandemic and the ensuing labor shortages accelerating thisphenomenon.Many leading restaurant chains have closed hundreds of locations over thepast two years.In 2020 for example,Dunkin closed around 700 underperforming locations,half of them shops inside Speed

38、way gas stations.McDonalds is closing hundreds of restaurants located inside Walmart stores,which willleave them with about 150 sites inside Walmart by the end of this summer,down from apeak of about 1,000.Restaurant Brands International(RBI)intends to close approximately700 underperforming location

39、s across three of its four brands:Burger King,Popeyes andTim Hortons.Rightsizing closing underperforming stores to focus on ones that are doing well can be apowerful tool in a corporations playbook,as long as the company successfully identifiesthe locations that need to close.Accurate rightsizing a

40、store fleet with dozens orhundreds of stores requires a deep analysis and understanding of restaurantperformance at chain,regional,and individual store levels.Burger Kings Strategic RightsizingBurger Kings store fleet consolidation offers a good case study of successful rightsizing.RBIhas closed hun

41、dreds of Burger King locations since 2019,and the decision proved to be asavvy one on a chain level.Between Q4 2020 and Q1 2022,Burger King closed over 100branches and saw the average number of visits per location rise from 14.6K in Q4 2020 to15.6K in Q1 2022.A closer look at some of the locations t

42、hat Burger King chose to close shows that theselocations were underperforming in terms of foot traffic,underperforming in terms of visitsper venue,had overlapping trade areas with other Burger King locations,or both.Weexamined several Burger King locations in Brooklyn,New York including one recently

43、closed branch 1940 Linden Boulevard to see why the chain chose to shut down thisparticular branch.Burger Kings Rightsizing Reducing CannibalizationAs shown on the graph below,the closed location(in purple)was not only consistentlyunderperforming compared to its neighboring branches in terms of visit

44、s it also had asignificant trade area overlap with the remaining venues in Brooklyn.By choosing to closethat store,Burger King freed up space for more customers to visit fewer locations,loweringoverhead costs and increasing revenues for the remaining locations.Keeping the Customers But Closing the B

45、ranchAnother location,in Dothan,Alabama,was also significantly underperforming relative toneighboring branches and had large overlapping trade areas with two other Burger Kinglocations.Given the branchs low foot traffic and small trade area over half of whichoverlapped with the trade area of neighbo

46、ring locations the closure seems strategicallysound.Embracing Omnichannel DiningOmnichannel Beyond RetailIn the past,omnichannel was a concept most commonly associated with retail brands,butrecently,dining concepts began experimenting with this idea.Diners today expectmaximum ease and speed,which me

47、ans ordering their food and picking it up whereverand whenever they want.And combining digital platforms with in-store pick up or diningcan give customers the convenience they crave.Providing a seamless and connectedcustomer experience is not simply a nice bonus,it is quickly turning into an essenti

48、al partof running a food service business.Allowing customers to access a menu by scanning a QRcode or to use an app to order food and book a table,omnichannel dining offers a way tointegrate the efficiency of technology with the benefits of in-house dining.In hopes of strengthening their omnichannel

49、 presence,many restaurant chains havelaunched new concepts from ghost kitchens to virtual brands with the goal of combiningonline and offline dining.IHOPs Virtual BrandsIn Q4 2021,IHOP launched a pilot to test its two virtual brands Thrilled Cheese and SuperMega Dilla at nine locations.These brands

50、allow diners to order food quickly throughapps such as DoorDash and Uber Eats.The initial pilot was a success,and IHOP announcedthat it is now expanding the pilot into a“beta test”that will include 50 IHOP locations.As the chart below shows,IHOP seems to have chosen to launch these virtual brands at

51、their best-performing locations.But the fact that those locations are continuing to performas well as they are into Q1 2022 proves that having a strong digital presence does notmean that fewer consumers will visit in-person.Instead,digital and brick and mortarchannels can work together to create a w

52、hole that is greater than the sum of its parts.Restaurants Betting on Customer LoyaltyLoyalty(Almost)Back To Pre-Pandemic LevelsMuch ink has been spilled about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic causedconsumers to change their habits,and one noticeable area that shifted was consumerloyalty.Now,

53、going into this third pandemic year,it seems that many consumers havereturned to some aspects of their pre-pandemic routines and this is bringing restaurantloyalty rates back up.Several fast-casual and sit-down restaurants saw their Q4 2021 loyalty rate reach within 1%of their Q4 2019 rates.For exam

54、ple,Jimmy Johns boasted a loyalty rate of 15.8%in Q42021 compared to 16%in Q4 2019,and The Cheesecake Factory saw its loyalty rate grow to14%in Q4 2021,just under the Q4 2019 rate of 14.1%.The Offline Impact of Online Loyalty ProgramsMany restaurants and QSR chains launched loyalty programs during t

55、he pandemic to drivemore traffic to their restaurants and also as a way to hold onto the pandemic-induceddigital sales gains.Although these loyalty programs exist primarily in the digital world,theyalso have a real impact on foot traffic after all,whatever is ordered through the digitalapp will be e

56、aten in the physical world.Wendys and Taco Bell Loyalty ProgramsWendys,which debuted its loyalty program in July 2020,was one of the first major burgerchains to launch a rewards program.Following the launch,Wendys saw a loyalty rate jumpto 55.2%in Q3 of 2020-a major increase from the 27%loyalty rate

57、 the previous quarter.While the excitement appears to have worn off rather quickly Q4 2020 saw a sharpdecrease down to 28.9%the loyalty rates climbed steadily after.By the end of 2021,Wendys seemingly returned to its pre-pandemic loyalty numbers,with a rate of 33.3%inQ4 2021,compared to 33.9%in Q4 2

58、019,and 75%growth in their loyalty programmembership.Taco Bell(re)-launched its rewards program in July 2020,and the loyalty rate in Q3 2020shot up to 51.5%,compared to 28.4%in Q2 2020.Like for Wendys,the initial foot trafficsurge was short-lived,but Taco Bell also saw its loyalty rates steadily inc

59、rease since.Andthe foot traffic decline in Q4 2020 is no indication that that rewards program is coolingdown.In fact,since the programs launch,app sales have increased by 90%.The dining sector is still recovering from the impacts of the past two years,and newfoundinflation struggles may yet hinder t

60、his process.Taking all that into account,there is plentyof reason to be optimistic,as QSR chains continue to introduce innovative programs toretain their customers.Moving ForwardThe dining sector has rallied impressively during two extremely challenging years.Whilemany dining venues did permanently

61、shutter as a result of the pandemic,and some diningbrands are still struggling to return to their pre-COVID visit levels,the sector as a whole hasshown remarkable resilience and agility.Moving forward,restaurant concepts will likely continue integrating technology into thedining space,and brands tha

62、t were once staunchly opposed to take-out or delivery willseemingly continue embracing omnichannel strategies to meet their customersexpectations.Now,to add to the COVID-related difficulties,inflation and the rise in gas prices are keepingsome consumers close to home.But if the past two years have t

63、aught us anything,its thatpeople want to socialize in the physical world and socializing usually includes grabbing acoffee,breaking bread,or hitting a bar.As Starbucks community stores have shown us,perhaps the most potent tool in a restaurants recovery belt is giving back,creatingrelationships,and

64、fostering a sense of community.Key Takeaways1.Community is KeyCommunity engagement is proving to be worthwhile for Starbucks,whose communitystores outperform comparable stores in terms of visit numbers,even if the visits comefrom a much smaller trade area.By tapping into local resources,restaurants

65、can build theirpresence in a way that feels meaningful and useful to the neighborhoods and communitiesthey serve.This approach is especially interesting as it allows large chains to create localroots and establish deeper relationships within specific communities.2.Gas prices may change how we dineWo

66、rldwide,gas prices are hitting historic highs,and consumers are shifting their attitudesaccordingly.As SONIC Drive-In and The Cheesecake Factorys foot traffic patterns indicate,customers may choose to stay close to home when dining.Restaurants should considerhow to accommodate these changes and atti

67、tudes to position themselves more effectivelyin a changing economy.3.Rightsizing continues to prove its worthBrands can maximize their profits by focusing on the best-performing stores in their fleetand ensure that their existing branches do not cannibalize each other.By strategicallyclosing certain

68、 stores,dining concepts can optimize foot traffic and increase profits.A focuson quality,not just quantity,may be the way forward for dining chains with a large anddense store count.Critically,it also pushes brands to reevaluate how they judge a locationand its potential.4.Omnichannel dining may be

69、the future of eating outVirtual dining and ghost kitchens are positioned to grow and to continue to complementphysical dining.As online and in-person dining become increasingly common,IHOPs virtualbrands may serve as a model for how the digital and physical channels can work togetherto drive both on

70、line and offline growth.Allowing customers the flexibility of choosing theirmeal with the push of a button is increasing in popularity and we will likely see these trendscontinue to grow as our on-and-offline lives become ever more intertwined.5.Loyalty pays offWith so many new loyalty programs arou

71、nd,brands that want to stay in the game mayneed to offer the customers an incentive to keep them coming back.Looking at Wendys,we can see that the introduction of a rewards program can increase customer loyaltysignificantly.The ability to tap into customer loyalty can play a significant role in driving foottraffic and hungry mouths to restaurant chains.


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