气候变化引发的电力市场波动会如何影响您？.pdf

1、1How Does Climate Change Induced Electricity Market Volatility Impact You?Thomas Schmitz,Energy Advisor,AbsoluteClimo LLCBattery Asset Management Summit Australia August 26th 20252What is Climate?A Box of Statistics?Weather?Thomas Schmitz,Energy Advisor,AbsoluteClimo LLCBattery Asset Management Summ

2、it Australia August 26th 20253 Climate and weather:often confused and conflated.Climate is not just statistical,it is also a non-linear dynamic system.Climate is also the accumulation of weather over periods of 1 month or longer.Climate:the tails are getting fatter(tail risk/tail“opportunity”).Clima

3、te system drives weather(volatility).Weather records spanning 30 years are compiled into a climate base period(climatology).The 30-year base period serves as a foundation to calculate averages(normal),anomalies(above or below normal)and provides a useable frame of reference of what to normally expec

4、t.To capture the dynamical effects of Earths climate,the 30-year base period is updated and shifted forward incrementally once a decade standard practice.Thomas Schmitz,Energy Advisor,AbsoluteClimo LLCBattery Asset Management Summit Australia August 26th 2025AbsoluteClimo Climate Model PrimerClimate

5、 change scenarios are not forecasts.4Climate(Change)&Tail Risks Thomas Schmitz,Energy Advisor,AbsoluteClimo LLCBattery Asset Management Summit Australia August 26th 2025Stratospheric Water VaporJanuary 2022 Hunga TongaHunga Haapai eruption Water vapor is a greenhouse gas!A large amount of water vapo

6、r was placed into the stratosphere by the massive Tonga eruption in 2022(a shallow submarine volcano),with impacts to the climate system and therefore also weather in 2023-2024.The stratospheric water vapor(positive)anomaly lingered into 2024 before starting to dissipate,as depicted on the chart to