麦肯锡：全球贸易集成化的复杂性（英文版）（20页）.pdf

1、PLACEHOLDER ONLY!Use Secondary image with Color adjustment treatment,following guidelines.Fanatic Studio/Getty ImagesJanuary 2023Global flowsThe complication of concentration in globaltradeConcentration in the origins of traded products is widespread,prompting questions about whether to diversify or

2、 decouple.By Olivia White,Jonathan Woetzel,Sven Smit,Jeongmin Seong,and Tiago Devesa No region is close to being self-sufficient.Every region relies on trade with others for more than 25 percent of at least one important type of good.About 40 percent of global trade is“concentrated.”Importing econom

3、ies rely on three or fewer nations for this share of global trade(Exhibit).Three-quarters of this concentration comes from economy-specific choices.In these cases(30 percent of global trade),individual countries source a product from only a few nations,even when global supply options are diversified

4、.Over the past five years,the largest economies have not systematically diversified the origins of imports.All have vulnerabilities,some more than others.Informed reimagination of global trade requires a granular approach,both in mapping concentrated trade relationships and in deciding on actionwhet

5、her to double down,decouple,or diversify.At a glanceMaize(corn)DiamondsAirplanesVaccinesMemory chipsNatural gas(pipeline)SoybeansLaptopsIron oreExamplesEconomy-specifc concentrationMany supplying economies exist,but each importer relies on only a few of them Global concentrationFew supplying econo-m

6、ies,on which most importers rely40106030Concentrated tradeImporters depend on three or fewer nations1Diversifed tradeTotal goods tradeProportion by type of concentration,%Web Exhibit Global trade value by type of concentration,20211Concentration refers to the product-level concentration for the impo