科尔尼：2026-2028年全球经济展望报告：驾驭分化时代（英文版）（23页）.pdf

1、Photo by Kearney alumNavigating an age of divergenceGlobal Economic Outlook 20262028:1H 2026Kearney ForesightGlobal Business Policy CouncilThe Global Business Policy Council,part of the Kearney Foresight network,is a leading voice on business-environment research and policy.Since its first CEO Retre

2、at in 1992,the Council has provided strategic foresight services for the worlds top executives and government officials.Through public-facing thought leadership,exclusive global forums,and advisory services,the Council helps decipher complex geopolitical,economic,social,and technological shifts,crea

3、ting clarity for CEOs and government leaders around key developments and trends for immediate impact and lasting advantage.The short-term economic outlook continues to reflect mounting complexities,fueled by heightened geopolitical risk,persistent economic policy uncertainty,and growing divergence i

4、n a K-shaped global economy.ForewordThis 1H 2026 Global Economic Outlook explores a world defined by a series of compounding challenges placing the economic system under ever greater strain.Heightened geopolitical risk,persistent policy uncertainty,rapid technological change,and mounting fiscal cons

5、traints continue to generate an operating environment best described as one of permanent uncertainty.Recent escalations of conflict across the Middle East are among several forces driving historically elevated uncertainty,raising baseline volatility across trade,investment,and capital flows.Against

6、this backdrop,the global growth outlook will remain below pre-pandemic levels.Global output will average 2.9 percent through 2028,compared with 3.2 percent growth in the decade prior to the pandemic.This growth is being supported by continued investment in artificial intelligence,adaptive supply cha