【中信期货】中国货币政策展望：总量型工具或仍有空间-260401（19页）.pdf

1、重要提示：本报告非重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2026-04-01 China Monetary Policy Outlook:Aggregate Policy Tools May Still Have Room 中国中国货币政策展望：总量货币政策展望：总量型型工具或仍有空间工具或仍有空间 摘要摘要 Abstract The moderately loose monetary policy stance is expected to continue,with further room for aggregate tools.Fiscal efforts still need to maintain a low

4、-interest-rate financing environment to reduce financing costs,and the issuance of local government bonds in the second quarter corresponding to debt reduction is likely to remain high.The foundation for fundamental economic repair still needs to be solidified,and the market continues to have certai

5、n expectations for loose monetary policy.Additionally,the constraints on interest rate cuts due to net interest margins and exchange rates may have weakened.Furthermore,the impact of geopolitical conflicts and rising oil prices on imported inflation might limit the possibility of further RRR cuts or

6、 interest rate reductions.Beyond affecting inflation expectations,rising oil prices could also influence economic fundamentals.If oil prices remain high,the market may start pricing in concerns over an economic slowdown,which could in turn boost expectations of loose monetary policy.As for governmen