安联：2026全球贸易调查报告：非常态经营：出口商如何应对地缘政治冲击（英文版）（32页）.pdf

1、Allianz Research8 April 2026Allianz Trade Global Survey 2026 Business as unusualHow exporters adapt to geopolitical shocksAllianz Research2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-5 Executive SummaryPage 6-9 A new layer of shocks in an already fragile environmentPage 14-19 The consequences of a year of US tar

2、iffsPage 20-23The consensus that broke:sustainability in a globally fragmented worldPage 24-25 AI adoption among exporters:a two-speed revolution?Page 26-28 AppendixPage 10-13 Paying the price in payment terms 8 April 2026Early signs of disruption.The Middle East conflict has added a new layer of sh

3、ocks to an already fragile environment shaped by tariffs,weakening demand and declining consumer confidence.We expect lower global GDP growth(+2.6%in 2026),higher global inflation(4.3%in 2026)and stronger fiscal pressure,with higher energy and input costs and weak demand adding to the pressure of 10

4、.5%effective US tariffs on companies margins.Even in the best-case scenario,a post-ceasefire recovery in the Strait of Hormuz would take time(reaching 15-30%of normal levels).Against this backdrop,for the 5th edition of the Allianz Trade Global Survey,we asked 6,000 companies in Brazil,China,France,

5、Germany,India,Italy,Poland,Singapore,Spain,the UAE,the UK,the US and Vietnam about their outlook for 2026,before and after the outbreak of war.Export confidence has held up better than during the 2025 tariff shock-dropping only 6pps to 75%of exporters still expecting positive growth-compared to the

6、40pps collapse after Liberation Day.However,the impact is uneven:Vietnamese,American and Spanish firms lost more than 10pps of confidence,while Chinese firms,already weakened by the trade war,lost 9pps to 51%.Logistics and energy are the most immediate concerns.60%of firms are worried about supply-c