联合国贸发会议（UNCTAD）：2026全球贸易更新报告（4月版）（英文版）（19页）.pdf

1、Global trade growth continues,but fragility risesFacts and figures Adobe StockGlobal tradeupdateAPRIL 2026HIGHLIGHTS1234Global trade in goods and services grew by$2.5 trillion in 2025,reaching$35 trillion,and is projected to expand further in Q1 2026.Trade gains in 2025 were broad-based,with East As

2、ia and Africa posting the strongest advances.SouthSouth trade also outperformed overall global trends.Amid United StatesChina trade decoupling,several connector countries have emerged,stabilizing flows and supporting global trade growth despite rising geopolitical fragmentation.A strong manufacturin

3、g sector,led by electronics trade,drove global trade growth,while the automotive sector remained subdued amid rising protectionism.Trade growth is expected to slow considerably in 2026,weighed down by geopolitical uncertainties,persistent inflationary pressures and rising trade costs,with only a few

4、 sectors expected to see trade expansion.5APRIL 2026Global tradeUpdate2Facts and figuresGlobal trade trends and nowcastGlobal trade growth remained robust in Q4 2025,rising roughly 2 per cent quarter-over-quarter(QoQ).Both goods and services contributed,with goods up 1.7 per cent and services nearly

5、 3per cent.UNCTADs nowcast indicates that this positive trend continued in Q1 2026,with goods and services expected to grow 2.5 per cent and 2 per cent,respectively,QoQ.On a trailing four-quarter basis,trade growth was strong,reflecting a persistent expansion rather than short-term fluctuations.Howe

6、ver,growth in services has slowed over the course of the last four quarters.These positive results are being tested by the macroeconomic consequences of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.1 1 See:https:/unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-growth-and-financial-implicationsGlobal tra