穆迪：2023年年北美银行系统展望（演讲PPT）（英文版）（38页）.pdf

1、2023 North American banking system outlooksMarch 8,2023Rob Colangelo,VP-Senior Credit OfficerRita Sahu,VP-Senior Credit OfficerJill Cetina,Associate Managing DirectorWelcome RemarksMarch 8,2023Jill Cetina,Associate Managing Director,FIG Canada:Banking System OutlookMarch 8,2023Rob Colangelo,VP-Senio

2、r Credit Officer North American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20234The stable outlook reflects our view of credit fundamentals in the banking sector over the next 12 to 18 months.Banking sector outlooks are distinct from rating outlooks,which,in addition to sector dynamics,also reflect issuers speci

3、fic characteristics and actions.The outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades,downgrades or ratings under review,or an average of rating outlook.The 2023 Canadian bank sector outlook is stableNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20235Households levered and facing adjustment to higher rate

4、sHousehold debt%of disposable income as of 30 September 2022Bank of Canada benchmark rate and household debt as a percentage of disposable income184.7%1.00%0.75%0.5%0.75%1.00%1.25%1.50%1.75%0.25%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.50%3.25%3.75%4.25%4.50%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%155160165170175180185190201320142015201620172018201

5、92020202120222023Household debt%disposable income(LHS)BoC benchmark rate(RHS)Source:Statistics Canada,Bank of Canada,Moodys Investors ServiceNorth American Banks:Banking System Outlooks,20236Source:Statistics Canada,Moodys Investors ServiceBoth household and corporate debt levels elevated in Canada

6、Household debt%of disposable income and corporate debt%of GDP are as of 30 September 2022149.7%173.0%184.7%121.1%179.3%155.2%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201