花旗研究院（Citi Institute）：2026量子威胁分析报告：万亿美元安全竞赛已开启（英文版）（15页）.pdf

1、January 2026The Trillion-Dollar Security Race Is OnQuantum Threat 2026 CitigroupQuantum Threat|The Trillion-Dollar Security Race Is OnPost-quantum cryptography is key to combatting quantum threats The challenge is not the lack of a solution,but the difficulty of implementing the right solution at sc

2、ale.For data that requires long-term confidentiality,retroactive cracking of encryption makes action now urgent.Vulnerable systems must move to quantum-safe alternativesQuantum readiness starts with a clear sequence of actions that identify exposure,prioritize critical systems,enable agility,guide m

3、igration and sustain long-term resilience.Cryptos quantum risks need addressingFor Bitcoin,public key exposure applies to only about 25%of coins.For other blockchains,the majority of coins are vulnerable.But these newer blockchains can move faster.Key Takeaways19-34%Probability of widespread breakin

4、g of quantum computer-led public-key encryption by 2034,increasing to 60-82%by 20441$2.0-$3.3tnEstimated indirect impact(GDP-at-risk)from a single-day quantum attack on one top-five U.S.banks access to Fedwire,i.e.10-17%of GDP2 25%The percentage of bitcoins(about 4.5-6.7 million coins worth$500-600

5、billion today)that are potentially“quantum-exposed”3 2Quantum Threat|The Trillion-Dollar Security Race Is On 2026 Citigroup3How Far Are We from Q-Day?The quantum threat stems from a revolutionary shift in computing power.Unlike classical computers that process information sequentially using bits (0

6、or 1),quantum computers employ “qubits”that can represent 0,1,or both simultaneously(Citi GPS:Quantum Computing Moving Quickly from Theory to Reality).This allows quantum computers to perform certain calculations,particularly those required to break todays complex encryption standards,at speeds that