应用预测：第二部分.pdf

1、Applied Forecasting Part Deux:3 years of Forecasting in CTIGert-Jan Bruggink&Lincoln Kaffenberger26 January 2026State of Forecasting;Strong on Speculation,Lite on Rigour2Challenges Faced on Our JourneysWhy is the state of forecasting in cyber the way it is?How to use forecasting supporting internal

2、teams?What can you do tomorrow and get some practical outcomes quickly?This briefing contains general information only,does not constitute professional advice or services,and should not be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business.Deloitte shall not be responsible for

3、any loss sustained by any person who relies on this posting.3State of Forecasting in Cyber Threat IntelligenceStrong on Speculation,Lite on RigourLets Get On the Same Page(s)Which version resembles your interpretation of forecasting in cyber?5Why Forecasting Remains Valuable“The goal of forecasting

4、is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.”-Paul Saffe Forecasting!=Predictions“The trouble with weather forecasting is that its right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.”Patrick Young6When Should Y

5、ou Consider Forecasting7StakeholdersRegulatory ComplianceAmbitionDancing the Cord Between Super Useful and Absolutely UselessMore&better dataMore&better trained analystsAccurate modelsBetter technologyEarly days of the fieldAdvanced times for the field8Will you decide to a)bring a jacket and b)wear

6、it?Typical Forecasting Process in Threat IntelMany think this is forecasting:Make ForecastDisseminateForecastMake ForecastDisseminateForecastEvaluate PeriodicallyBrief UpdatesAAR the ModelsForecast InputsThis is how forecasting works effectively in this context:9Over Time,Better Knowledge&Understand