科尔尼：欧洲能源系统的未来-聚焦替代天然气（英文版）（9页）.pdf

1、The future of the European energy system:a focus on alternative gasPhoto by Rachael Rinchiuso Kearney,Chicago1 Including the United KingdomSources:Rystad Energy,European Commission,Fitch Ratings;Kearney analysisFigure 1The EU imported more that 40%of its gas from Russia in 2021 and is aiming to repl

2、ace two-thirds of it in 2022European gas demand vs.supply sources 20211(bcm per year)REPowerEU proposal to reduce dependenceon Russian gas by the end of 2022(bcm per year)DemandOwnproductionNetimportsNetimportsPipelineNetimportsLNG46281381154(40%)140(37%)72(19%)15(4%)Share of RussiaVolume ofRussian

3、gas tobe replacedNon-RussianLNGNon-Russianpipeline gasEnergy savingsRenewables frontloading101.550.010.014.022.5Biomethaneproduction3.5Heat pumprollout1.5Concerning gas supplies,there are two short-term challenges to using additional LNG supplies(50 bcm)and alternative pipeline gas(10 bcm):Do oil-an

4、d-gas-rich countries have the capacity to supply more gas?Is the infrastructure in place for such a massive shift?Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions,can the region find a substitute for Russian gas?Less than 20 percent of Europes consumption of natural gas is met by its own production.In fact,40 per

5、cent of imports140 billion cubic meters per year(bcm/y)comes from Russia,mostly through pipelines and to a lesser extent by 15 bcm/y of liquefied natural gas(LNG)(see figure 1).1Amid todays geopolitical tensions,European imports of Russian gas are decreasing,whether it be because of an EU decision o

6、r a Russian measure.Either way,the need to consider short-term alternative sources of gas raises serious challenges when it comes to feasibility and costs.In early March 2022,the European Commission outlined a pathway to reduce Europes dependency on Russian gas.By the end of the year,the goal is to