安联保险集团（Allianz）：2023年全球贸易调查报告（英文版）（23页）.pdf

1、04Cautiously optimistic exporters01 June 20230640%of exporters fear a rise in non-payment risk in 202308Supply-chain-related challenges and risks remain top of mindTesting Allianz Trade Global Survey 2023 Allianz Research09What is on exporters wish lists for government support?resilience10Nothing se

2、ems likely to budge significantly global supply chains13Digitalization and slight adjustments to locationsFranoise HuangSenior Economist for Asia-Pacificfrancoise.huangallianz- Ana BoataHead of Economic Researchana.boataallianz-Jasmin GrschlSenior Economist for Ewith the assistance ofPierre Rouillar

3、dResearch Assistantpierre.rouillardallianz-2ExecutiveSummaryAllianz Research In our 2023 Allianz Trade Global Survey,we decided to check the pulse of companies in seven countries the US,the UK,Germany,France,Italy,Spain and Poland.Over three weeks to mid-April,we surveyed a sample of high-level exec

4、utives in around 3,000 companies that have export activities and suppliers and production sites located in foreign countries.Exporters remain cautiously optimistic.Roughly 70%of corporates expect business turnover generated through exports to increase in 2023(against close to 80%in the 2022 edition

5、and 94%before the start of the war in Ukraine).One in two exporters sees a moderate turnover increase,between+2%and+5%,down from the double-digit turnover growth registered in 2022.This compares with our latest global trade growth forecasts for 2023:+0.7%in volume terms and-0.1%in value terms.Compan

6、ies in the countries most affected by the energy crisis are the least optimistic,with Germany,Poland and Italy being the most pessimistic.Companies have a smaller appetite for new markets,favoring a consolidation of existing ones.63%of corporates favor increasing investment in countries where they a