美国能源信息署（EIA）：2023年全球石油市场短期展望报告（英文版）（52页）.pdf

1、 STEO June 2023 ShortShort-Term Term Energy OutlookEnergy Outlook June 2023 U.S.Energy Information Administration|Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 The U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE),prepared this report.By law,our

2、data,analyses,and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S.Government.The views in this report do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies.June 2023 U.S.Energy Information Administration|Short-Term Energy Outlook 2 Overview U.S.energy market i

3、ndicators 2022 2023 2024 Brent crude oil spot price(dollars per barrel)$101$80$84 Retail gasoline price(dollars per gallon)$3.97$3.39$3.30 U.S.crude oil production(million barrels per day)11.89 12.61 12.77 Natural gas price at Henry Hub(dollars per million British thermal units)$6.42$2.66$3.42 U.S.l

4、iquefied natural gas gross exports(billion cubic feet per day)10.6 12.1 12.7 Shares of U.S.electricity generation Natural gas 39%41%39%Coal 20%16%16%Renewables 22%23%25%Nuclear 19%19%19%U.S.GDP(percentage change)2.1%1.3%1.0%U.S.CO2 emissions(billion metric tons)4.96 4.79 4.78 Data source:U.S.Energy

5、Information Administration,Short-Term Energy Outlook,June 2023 Global oil markets.Following the OPEC+announcement on June 4 to extend crude oil production cuts through 2024,we forecast global oil inventories to fall slightly in each of the next five quarters.We expect these draws will put some upwar

6、d pressure on crude oil prices,notably in late-2023 and early-2024.We forecast the Brent crude oil spot price will average$79 per barrel(b)in the second half of 2023(2H23)and$84/b in 2024.Global oil consumption.We forecast global liquids fuels consumption will rise by 1.6 million barrels per day(b/d