Gartner：使用情景规划为不确定的能源未来做准备（英文版）（18页）.pdf

1、Use Scenario Planning to Prepare for an UncertainEnergy FutureGartner ResearchRich McAvey,Zarko Sumic,Ethan Cohen,Mike Ramsey,Bettina Tratz-Ryan,Keith Harrison,Stephen Smith,Chet Geschickter,Nicole Foust,Simon Cushing,Lloyd Jones11 August 2021Gartner,Inc.|G00755172Page 1 of 11Use Scenario Planning t

2、o Prepare for an UncertainEnergy FuturePublished 11 August 2021-ID G00755172-11 min readBy Analyst(s):Rich McAvey,Zarko Sumic,Ethan Cohen,Mike Ramsey,Bettina Tratz-Ryan,Keith Harrison,Stephen Smith,Chet Geschickter,Nicole Foust,Simon Cushing,Lloyd JonesInitiatives:Executive Leadership:Sustainability

3、;CIO Leadership of Innovation,Disruptive Trends and Emerging PracticesRapidly growing demand for energy and consequentialenvironmental impacts is creating global disruptions for everyindustry.Executive leaders should use the future of energyscenario to anticipate,prepare and navigate a complex and v

4、olatilefuture.OverviewKey FindingsAs developing countries make economic progress,their growing energy needs placesubstantial pressure on global energy markets and environmental conditions.Economic incentives do not reflect the total societal cost of increasing energyproduction on the environment ske

5、wing near-term investments.Energy availability and cost are,directly or indirectly,fundamental factors thatdetermine the viability of every business in every industry.Most companies are notaware of how much exposure they have to disruptions coming from energy markets.Energy markets are at an inflect

6、ion point.Growing demand,lack of“game-changing”technologies and unreliable investment incentives make the future of energy hard topredict.Data and digital technologies,if used in novel ways,may be a large factor inshaping future energy scenarios.Most executive leaders have not yet connectedtheir dig