科法斯：2023年第三季度贸易风险报告（英文版）（14页）.pdf

1、Macroeconomics put to the test by microeconomic deteriorationThe near-continuous fall in inflation over the last few months,against a backdrop of easing commodity prices,coupled with buoyant labour markets and a still solid wage dynamic,has rekindled hopes of a soft landing for the global economy.No

2、w taken for granted,or almost,in the United States,such hopes are gaining ground in Europe,where the energy situation is far more reassuring than it was a year ago,and where finance bill drafts suggest-for the time being-only a(very)slight tightening of the fiscal screws.China,which prefers to take

3、the longer route to purge the excesses of the past,will certainly slow significantly(+4%in 2024,after+4.5%this year)but will continue to be one of the main engines of a still convalescent world economy.In short,the spectre of recession is receding,as evidenced by the fact that yield curves in most d

4、eveloped economies are less and less inverted.While the overall economic picture is undoubtedly better than a year ago,we do not endorse this highly optimistic reading of the situation.Over and above the risks that have already been mentioned many times,some of which continue to intensify(financial

5、stability,social and political risks-which we are updating in this new edition of our barometer),we should bear in mind that the fight against inflation has not yet been won,or even entered its(painful)last mile:excluding energy,inflation remains well above the targets set by central banks,while the

6、 situation on the oil markets has(again)become tense following the attacks in Israel.Rather than trying to read the omens in yield curves,which have been rendered illegible by central bank intervention for nearly 15 years,we should also recognise that the sudden flattening of the yield curves observ