波士顿咨询：排放指令将重塑欧洲卡车运输业（2023）（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1、Emissions Mandates Will Remake Europes Trucking IndustryOCTOBER 2023The switch to zero-emission vehicles will benefit the sectors overall GDP and employment but will shift value among industry segmentsSource:BCG analysis.Note:OEM forecast assumes that automakers will not make strategic changes to th

2、eir current business model.MHDT-related utilities forecast assumes that,by 2035,the share of renewables from total electricity production will exceed 88%.MHDT=medium-and heavy-duty truck;T&E=Transport&Environment.SuppliersOEMs Infrastructure playersMHDT-related utilities GDP(BILLIONS)JOBS(MILLIONS)I

3、ncreased battery cell production from new entrants will drive GDP and job growthPhasing out internal combustion engine production will add to GDP but reduce employmentBuilding charging network infrastructure hardware will boost GDP and jobsShifting from foreign fossil fuels to domestic electricity w

4、ill increase GDP and employment221163320.60.33 1 3518 6 3 5525T&E caseBase caseBCG market perspectiveSuppliers will benefit in GDP and jobs,but they will need new capabilities to make battery cells and related componentsSource:BCG analysis.Note:Excludes buses,coaches,and light-duty vehicles.EDU=elec

5、trical drive unit;EV=electric vehicle;ICE=internal combustion engine;T&E=Transport&Environment.Because of rounding,not all sums of component numbers listed match the totals given.Overall impact+7BGDPAdditional GDP will come mainly from production of battery cells+3,000jobsNew jobs making EV componen

6、ts will compensate for loss of ICE-related positionsT&E case:Elevated CO2 standards(beyond those set by the EU Commission)GDP(BILLIONS)EMPLOYMENT(THOUSANDS)293572022211122035+6ICE transmissionICE engineperipheryBatterycellsEDU PowerelectronicsFuel cell stackand tankICE transmissionICE engineperipher