Teneo：2024年英国经济和消费者预测报告（英文版）（35页）.pdf

1、2024 UK Economic and Consumer ForecastFebruary 2024Teneo Economic InsightsContents and authors22024 UK Economic and Consumer Forecast01Executive summary0302The UK labour market is starting to loosen,leading to increased unemployment in some sectors0503UK inflation will continue to fall,but we expect

2、 it to bottom out above the 2%Bank of England target1504Continued wage growth will provide some household relief,but expenditure remains constrained1905Despite small increases in real wages,we expect consumer spending to be constrained2706What does this mean for H1 2024?32Gee LefevreSenior Managing

3、DirectorTravel,Leisure,and Hospitality Practice LeadGee.L+44 20 3206 8860Kabir SeehraSenior ManagerKabir.S+44 7584 103640Professor Jonathan PortesSenior AdvisorFormer Chief Economist to the Cabinet OfficeMichael FattoriSenior ConsultantMichael.F+44 20 7367 4106Jessica EganDirectorJessica.E+44 20 320

4、6 8857Executive summarySection 01Executive summaryFalling inflation and upward wage pressure are resulting in household relief after two years of real wage decline.However,continued pressure from mortgage rates and debt accumulation means we expect consumer spending to remain suppressed.42024 UK Eco

5、nomic and Consumer ForecastFalling inflation combined with upward wage pressure has meant real wages rose in Q4 2023 for the first time in two yearsDespite this increase in real wages,the household cash position is still worse than in 2021,with households impacted by rising housing costs,taxation an

6、d servicing debtContinued pressure on household cash particularly households that have historically accounted for material spending power will have a knock-on impact on consumer expenditure,which will continue to be constrained in 2024Households are not impacted equally;we are observing that upper-m