保德信房地产：2024年全球房地产投资展望报告（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、2024 GLOBAL OUTLOOKMAY 2024INVESTMENT RESEARCHFor Professional and Institutional Investors only.All investments involve risk,including the possible loss of capital.Constructing a new portfolio for the next cycle2024 GLOBAL OUTLOOKKey Takeaways:2024 is all about CHANGING THE NARRATIVE around global r

2、eal estate and the way investment portfolios are constructed.When it comes to building a RESILIENT GROWTH-DRIVEN portfolio,city and local market dynamics matter.3Investment themes are driven by ongoing STRUCTURAL trends and TACTICAL opportunities from a dislocated market.2As returns turn a corner,20

3、24 represents a COMPELLING ENTRY POINT across the risk spectrum.1PART III PART IIPORTOLIO CONSTRUCTIONGLOBAL OVERVIEWPART I KEY INVESTMENT THEMESPGIM Real Estate|May 2024|REF:013208 Page 4 2024 GLOBAL OUTLOOK0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%000204060810121416182022242628Net Initial Yield10-Year Government Bond Yield

4、Target Acquisition Yield and RangeGlobal yields have corrected signifcantly and are close to our target rangeSeveral key factors give us conviction that global real estate markets are approaching a turning point:Looser monetary conditions.As a capital-intensive industry,a reduction in borrowing cost

5、s via lower interest rates is set to ease the strain on investors.Historical precedent.Values have started to turn a corner the pattern is consistent with past cycles,pointing to a stabilization this year and return to growth in 2025.The repricing is nearly done.Based on our modeling,most of the eff

6、ect of past interest rate increases has now been factored in.Yields are already very close to our target acquisition range.Low supply,solid occupier markets.Despite recession risks,occupier strains have been limited by ongoing jobs growth resilience and low development activity.Rental growth remains