安联保险集团（Allianz）：2024年全球贸易调查报告（英文版）（32页）.pdf

1、04Calm before the storm?08Non-payment risk is still top of mind 10Geopolitics and selec-tive globalization14 May 2024Allianz ResearchProtectionism Mithridatism19Will AI supercharge global trade?22Sustainability pro-gress remains slowAllianz Trade Global Survey 2024:China,France,Germany,Italy,Poland,

2、Spain,UK and US AllianzTrade2 Mithridatism:After the trade recession,exporters are more optimistic in 2024 but also more concerned with(and also more used to?)geopolitical risks,shortages of inputs and labor and financing and non-payment risks.For the third edition of our Trade Survey,we asked over

3、3,000 companies in China,France,Germany,Italy,Poland,Spain,the UK and the US about their outlook for global trade in the year ahead.This year,82%of the companies surveyed said they expected business turnover generated through exports to increase.Serendipitously last year,70%of corporates expected tu

4、rnover growth and the year ended up with a trade recession,reminding us of the conquering nature of exporters,as well as the negative year-on-year commodity price effect on export revenue worldwide.This year the good news is that(i)nearly 40%expect a significant increase of more than+5%in 2024(twice

5、 as much as last year)and(ii)80%of respondents expect export prices to continue to rise in 2024.Our overall forecasts are quite conservative:we expect global trade to increase by+2.8%in value terms,below the long-term average of 5%,reflecting the risk of disruptions in global shipping like the Red S

6、ea crisis,as well as the many trade wars looming on the horizon of the super electoral year.This year,risks related to politics and protectionism come up as the top risk by companies in our survey overall(at 73%).Furthermore,exporters still seem concerned with the shadow of supply-chain disruptions(