安联贸易：产业政策：旧瓶可否装新酒？（2024）（英文版）（22页）.pdf

1、04The return of industrial policy10Is industrial policy good for investors and businesses?15Squaring the circle in the EU19 June 2024Allianz ResearchIndustrial policy:old dog,new tricks?AllianzTrade2 Industrial policies and subsidies are back with a bang,especially in major economies such as the US,

2、China,India,Germany and Brazil.Governments are increasingly getting involved in setting industrial priorities and supporting strategic industries through subsidies to promote innovation and technology diffusion.The 2,642 industrial policy measures implemented in 2023 were driven by efforts to secure

3、 strategic competitiveness and mitigate climate change,as well as an increasing emphasis on national security.But industrial policy is not a perfect solution and can even be counterproductive,leading to tit-for-tat reactions.And fiscal capacity is the main constraint for financing industrial policy.

4、Subsidies averaged 0.3%of GDP in EU27 economies in 2023.As more and more countries face constraints from budget deficits,public debt and fiscal pressures,this emphasizes the need for well-considered fiscal policies to promote innovation while being mindful of potential economic distortions.For inves

5、tors and businesses,the return of industrial policy offers short term gains for some but can also create longer-term challenges.Over the short run,transition-related and tech sectors will gain the most from industrial policies,especially low-carbon technologies,metals(steel,aluminum and critical mat

6、erials),advanced technologies,semiconductors and defense-related sectors.Companies should benefit from a significant profitability boost:The average renewable/green tech manufacturer could see its gross profit margin double by 2025 compared to a baseline without tax credits.Industrial policy will al