罗兰贝格：20240年汽车行业展望报告（英文版）（46页）.pdf

1、STUDYPace yourself for the marathon aheadAutomotive Outlook 2040The automotive industry is in the midst of a lengthy period of disruption,a storm that is unlikely to subside any time soon.Over the next decade and a half,new technology and geopolitical events will continue to radically transform mark

2、ets and disrupt supply chains.At the same time,the center of gravity of the industry will shift but in which direction remains to be seen.Will Asia be calling the shots in 2040,or will Western players manage to stage an effective comeback?The uncertainty over what lies ahead makes it vital for those

3、 in the industry to understand the trends driving this prolonged process of transformation over the next decade and a half.Our research shows that the previously identified shift towards innovative,shared mobility solutions that we thought would be a global phenomenon will in fact largely be limited

4、 to metropolitan areas,which account for less than ten percent of the distance traveled by private vehicles overall.What,then,does the road ahead hold for the automotive world?We identify four directions of change that stand out from the many trends in the market four megatrends that we believe will

5、 shape the transformation of the industry through 2040.Their initials form the acronym PACE:The automotive world is becoming more Polarized,with regional nuances and added complexity making globalization more challenging,forcing players to make choices.Automation is growing,with the rise of autonomo

6、us vehicles and use of AI all along the value chain.Vehicles are increasingly Connected and digitalized.And Electrification continues apace indeed,our base-case scenario assumes a battery-electric vehicle share of 71 percent in 2040,while our downside case assumes a share of 64 percent,subject to re