国际清算银行：2024生成式AI的崛起对美国劳动力市场的影响分析报告：渗透度、替代效应及对不平等状况的影响（英文版）（40页）.pdf

1、BIS Working Papers No 1207 The rise of generative AI:modelling exposure,substitution,and inequality effects on the US labour market by Raphael Auer,David Kpfer,Josef vda Monetary and Economic Department September 2024 JEL classification:E24,E51,G21,G28,J23,J24,M48,O30,O33 Keywords:Labour market,Arti

2、ficial intelligence,Employment,Inequality,Automation,ChatGPT,GPT,LLM,Wage,Technology BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements,and from time to time by other economists,and are published by the Bank.The papers are on s

3、ubjects of topical interest and are technical in character.The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS.This publication is available on the BIS website(www.bis.org).Bank for International Settlements 2024.All rights reserved.Brief excerpts may be r

4、eproduced or translated provided the source is stated.ISSN 1020-0959(print)ISSN 1682-7678(online)The rise of generative AI:modelling exposure,substitution,andinequality effects on the US labour marketRaphael AuerDavid K opferJosefSv edaAugust 21,2024AbstractHow exposed is the labour market to ever-a

5、dvancing AI capabilities,to what extentdoes this substitute human labour,and how will it affect inequality?We address thesequestions in a simulation of 711 US occupations classified by the importance and level ofcognitive skills.We base our simulations on the notion that AI can only perform skills t

6、hatare within its capabilities and involve computer interaction.At low AI capabilities,7%ofskills are exposed to AI uniformly across the wage spectrum.At moderate and high AIcapabilities,17%and 36%of skills are exposed on average,and up to 45%in the highestwage quartile.Examining complementary versu