Milliman：2024气候变化对冬季死亡率的影响研究报告：未来趋势的不确定性与冬季气温对死亡率影响的模型构建建议（英文版）（17页）.pdf

1、MILLIMAN WHITE PAPER The impact of climate change on winter mortality:A complex phenomenon with an uncertain future 1 Winter temperature trends and suggestions for modeling their impact on mortality November 2024 The impact of climate change on winter mortality:A complex phenomenon with an uncertain

2、 future Winter temperature trends and suggestions for modeling their impact on mortality Eve Titon Tinhinane Talbi Jeanne Bessiere While some studies have been carried out on the prediction of heat waves and the resulting mortality,1 there is relatively little work on the mortality risk associated w

3、ith cold temperatures.In fact,the global rise in temperatures is leading to an increasing number of summer heat waves,with a consequent impact on mortality,while winter death rates have been declining overall since 1990.However,the impact of low temperatures on the human body is complex:As human bei

4、ngs adjust their thermal optimum according to the climate,it is not certain that warmer winters will lead to a decrease in winter deaths in the future.Furthermore,the increasing volatility of temperatures in climate projections adds an additional layer of uncertainty,making the effects of these seas

5、onal variations even more challenging to predict.In this study,the mechanisms of the impact of changing winter weather conditions on the human body are detailed to define the climate variables of interest,as well as the appropriate models.Two models are then implemented and illustrated on French mor

6、tality dataa Lee-Carter model and a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)to incorporate mortality attributable to winter weather conditions in a dynamic model.How do cold temperatures affect mortality?The impact of climate change on mortality is not only a major social issue,but also a major challe