世界贸易组织：2024年全球贸易展望与统计报告（10月刊）（英文版）（32页）.pdf

1、Global Trade Outlookand StatisticsUpdate:October 2024About the WTOThe World Trade Organization is the international body dealing with the global rules of trade between nations.Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly,predictably and freely as possible,with a level playing field fo

2、r all its members.1ContentsExecutive summary 2Revised outlook for trade in 2024 and 2025 3Trade in value terms 15Merchandise trade 15Services trade 17Evidence of decoupling and fragmentation 21 Analysis:Thirty years of trade-led growth since the Marrakesh Agreement 23GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK AND STATIST

3、ICS-UPDATE:OCTOBER 2024Executive summary The WTO has revised its forecast for world merchandise trade growth in 2024 to 2.7%up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.6%and to 3.0%in 2025 from 3.3%previously.Demand for traded goods was weaker than expected in Europe but stronger than foreseen in As

4、ia.World real GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain steady at 2.7%between 2023 and 2025.The fastest growing region in 2024 is likely to be Asia,where output is expected to climb to 4.0%,while the slowest growing region is likely to be Europe at 1.1%.Germany has been particularly

5、weak,with GDP growth turning slightly negative in Q2.The US dollar value of world merchandise trade was nearly unchanged in the first half of 2024 compared to a year earlier while services trade was up 8%in the first quarter.Rising trade volume and flat trade values implies a decline in export and i

6、mport prices of around 2.6%.Among commercial services,the highest growth was achieved by travel,which rose 19%in Q1.Inflation had fallen sufficiently by the middle of 2024 to allow central banks to cut interest rates.Lower inflation should raise real household incomes and boost consumer spending,whi