国际清洁运输理事会(ICCT)：2024东亚地区建造零排放船舶的潜在经济收益研究报告（英文版）（28页）.pdf

1、www.theicct.org communicationstheicct.orgtheicct.org WORKING PAPERSEPTEMBER 2024Economic benefits of building zero-emission capable vessels in East AsiaHae Jeong Cho,Serkannalan,and Zhihang MengSUMMARYAchieving net-zero greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from international shipping by or around 2050 will

2、require zero-emission capable vessels(ZECVs).Most of these vessels would likely be built in China,Republic of Korea,and Japan,which collectively dominate the shipbuilding industry,especially for large cargo ships.Because ZECVs are more expensive than conventional vessels,this presents an economic op

3、portunity for shipbuilders and shipbuilding countries,especially for first movers that gain a competitive advantage in the marketplace.In this paper,we provide an overview of the shipbuilding market and existing government support measures for the industry in China,Republic of Korea,and Japan.We the

4、n estimate the additional revenues these countries could earn by building ZECVs instead of conventional vessels.We estimate that,if all newbuild bulk carriers,chemical tankers,container ships,oil tankers,and liquefied gas tankers produced in 2030 were to be zero-emission capable instead of running o

5、n conventional fossil fuels,the additional revenues would range from$6.9 billion to$36.0 billion globally.Building ZECVs could thus increase shipbuilder revenue from propulsion systems by 86%to 452%.Given each countrys current shipbuilding market shares,China would see additional revenues of$3.1$15.

6、9 billion(98%to 510%above the Baseline scenario),Republic of Korea would gain an additional$1.5$6.2 billion(60%to 253%above the Baseline),and Japan would gain an additional$2.1$12.5 billion(97%to 583%above the Baseline).If ZECV uptake grows at a constant rate between 2026 and 2030,the additional rev