国际航空运输协会（IATA）：2025航空运输市场全球展望（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、Global Outlook for Air Transport A World with Lower Oil Prices?December 2024 2 Global Outlook for Air Transport A World with Lower Oil Prices?Table of contents1.Main takeways 32.A World with Lower Oil Prices?43.Traffictoreachanall-timehigh12 3.1 Airpassengertraffic123.2 Traffic,connectivity,andcontr

2、ibutiontothebroadereconomy153.3 Aircargotraffic164.Airlinefinancialperformance184.1 Revenuedevelopments204.2 Costdevelopments224.3 Regions295.Appendix 325.1 Industrystatistics325.2 Glossary345.3 Listofcharts355.4 Listoftables353 Global Outlook for Air Transport A World with Lower Oil Prices?1.Main t

3、akeways The price of Brent crude oil has dropped by around 20%over the past 12 months.With global GDP stable at 3.2%,the lower oil price cannot be explained by a weakening global economic cycle.Instead,it is the result of over-supply as the US affirms its position as the worlds leading oil producer.

4、It is also the result of shifting demand for different energy products,especially in China.Lower oil prices will have several implications for the global economy and the airline industry,the most obvious one being lower headline inflation.This should allow further easing of monetary policy,and in tu

5、rn potentially weaken the US dollar against most currencies.All these things are supportive of households spending power and of global growth.Lower oil prices will improve oil-importing countries current accounts and strengthen their financial positions.This represents a unique opportunity to reform

6、 fossil fuel subsidies and redirect them towards renewable energy production.One years worth of global fossil fuel subsidies,USD 7 trillion in 2022,would cover the entire capital investment needed for the airlines energy transition over the 27 years to 2050.Airlines will benefit from lower crude oil