富国银行：2025年全球投资展望报告：投资预测与新兴趋势（英文版）（36页）.pdf

1、uuuDecember 20242025 OutlookCharting the economys next chapterInvestment and Insurance Products:NOT FDIC InsuredNO Bank GuaranteeMAY Lose ValuePage 2|2025 OutlookDarrell L.Cronk,CFA PresidentWells Fargo Investment InstituteChief Investment Officer,Wealth&Investment Management“In investing,what i

2、s comfortable is rarely profitable.”Robert Arnott Charting the economys next chapterThe centerpiece of our 2025 global economic outlook is a U.S.growth acceleration that leads the world economy,which we believe will grow more slowly.The Wall Street term is a“soft landing,”in which the U.S.economy re

3、gains momentum after a growth slowdown.To earn its name,the soft landing must feature catch-up spending so that lagging manufacturing and other segments catch up to services,which have been much stronger.But in that catch-up,and in likely new tariffs and tighter immigration,we expect a modest inflat

4、ion uptick by year-end.Our outlook for investment returns looks solid.Equity markets seem to have embraced the soft-landing scenario since mid-2023,and the S&P 500 Index posted a 33%total return in the 12 months through December 2,2024,but the Bloomberg Aggregate U.S.Bond Index appears set for a

5、nother year of loss and still has not recovered from its 17%drop between July 2020 and October 2022.Investors seeking income have gravitated toward money market funds and short-term instruments,but we favor shifting those holdings into broadening equity-market opportunities and longer-term fixed inc

6、ome in 2025.Beyond the economy,the incoming administration and congressional leaders want a fast start.The likeliest policy priorities include extending tax benefits,expiring next year,and deregulation,plus new tariffs and tighter border control.These tax-cut extensions passed the House of Represent