科尔尼（A.T. Kearney）：2024-2028全球经济展望报告：稳中求进？（2024下半年更新）（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1、Photo by Rachael Rinchiuso Kearney,ChicagoSlow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 202420282H 2024 updateAsia and Australasia will continue to lead the world in output growth.Led by India and China,Asia and Australasia will average 3.7 percent growth over the forecast period.The Middle East and Afric

2、a is the worlds second fastest-growing region,with average output growth forecast to reach 3.2 percent,driven by strong performance from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.The Americas and the Europe and Eurasia region are projected to grow at 2.1 and 1.6 percent,respectively,with the United

3、States and United Kingdom leading each region in growth.India remains the worlds fastest-growing large economy,and the United States continues to overperform growth projections.India will average 6.8 percent growth over the 20242028 forecast period,supported by robust private investment,strong agric

4、ultural production,and falling inflation.China is still the second fastest-growing economy in Asia,with average growth projected to hover around 4.1 percent through the 2028 forecast period.The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will grow at 4.1 and 3.8 percent respectively,supported by strong pr

5、ivate consumption and business investment.The United States will remain the fastest-growing G7 economy,averaging 2.2 percent growth through 2028,supported by cooling inflation,a strong labor market,robust productivity growth,and the specter of lower interest rates.The global economy appears to be st

6、abilizing,albeit at growth levels below pre-pandemic averages.Yet scenario analysis suggests that key uncertainties could profoundly change the course of the economic outlook.Summary of key conclusions Geopolitical risk and technological disruption will drive economic outcomes.While baseline global