德勤：2023年加拿大经济展望报告利率上升带来不利影响导致更深的衰退（英文版）（18页）.pdf

1、Interest rate increases bite,leading to deeper recession Economic outlook January 2023|Interest rate increases bite,leading to deeper recessionEconomic outlookJanuary 2023|2 Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.Economic outlook|January 20232Foreword Recession talk has ramped up over the past few wee

2、ks as the reasons to support the negative turn in sentiment stack up.The Bank of Canada has hiked interest rates by more than we anticipated a few months ago,a trend that is chipping away at household purchasing power.Higher borrowing costs have created a headwind for businesses that want to invest.

3、And aggressive monetary tightening isnt limited to Canada:the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve are also embarking on rapid tightening campaigns,which are expected to tip these economies into recession.While a recession has been expected in the eurozone for months,the downgraded outlo

4、ok for the United States will hit Canada hard,given our trade dependence on our southern neighbours.Households are being battered by the double whammy of high inflation and rising borrowing costs.Higher interest rates had an almost immediate impact on the resale housing market,as elevated mortgage r

5、ates shrank the pool of potential buyers who qualify to borrow.As a result,weve seen household investments in real estate tumble since the second quarter of 2022.Of course,higher interest rates are also pinching current borrowers.Recent data shows the impact on debt-carrying costs:in the third quart

6、er of last year,interest payments on household debt increased by 16.2%the largest jump on record.In dollar terms,interest payments increased by$16.4 billion from the previous quarter.From an economics point of view,because consumption is the largest contributor to our gross domestic product(GDP),tha