标准普尔全球：2024年全球电池市场分析与展望报告先行者可能会保持领先地位（英文版）（15页）.pdf

1、This report does not constitute a rating actionGlobal Battery MarketFirst movers will likely keep their leadsStephen ChanAssociate DirectorJeremy KimAssociate DirectorOct.10,2024 Key Takeaways2What do we expect over the next 12-24 months?We anticipate slowing growth in electric vehicle(EV)sales in E

2、urope and U.S.;the ongoing electrification trend will still support long term growth in global EV batteries.Chinese and Korean battery players will remain in the lead in the global battery market on their technology advantages and strong ties with automakers in the next few years at least.We will li

3、kely see market consolidation in Chinas battery market under the new guidance by the Chinese government to improve overcapacity issues.Credit implications:Economies of scale and rollouts of new,better-priced products will likely improve profitability for Contemporary Amperex Technology(CATL)(A-/Stab

4、le/-).We anticipate its free operating cashflow(FOCF)will further increase over the next two years,deepening its net cash position;Investment burdens remain high for LG Energy Solution Ltd.(LG EnSol)(BBB+/Negative/-),given its aggressive capacity expansion amid slowing EV growth in its key markets.T

5、his will likely elevate its debt-to-EBITDA to 2.5x-2.6x in 2024-2025 from 1.5x in 2023.Rating trends:Solidified business strength and sustained net cash position supports the stable rating outlook on CATL.The negative outlook on LG EnSol reflects our view that the high capital expenditure(capex)need

6、s for the EV battery division could pressure the financial metrics of its parent LG Chem.We equalize our rating on LG EnSol to that on its parent,given its core subsidiary status.Battery demand growth remains solidEV penetration will continue to grow3 We estimate the global battery market will see 3