安联（Allianz）：2024年行业地图集：被挤压的、被边缘化的以及被赋能的行业（英文版）（46页）.pdf

1、04Agrifood16Household Equipment29Retail06Automotive18IT-Services31Telecom08Chemicals20Machinery&Equipment32Textiles10Construction22Metals34Transport Equipment12Electronics24Paper38Transportation42Sector risk methodology14Energy26Pharmaceuticals4 September 2024Allianz ResearchSector Atlas 2024:the ou

2、tpriced,the outcasts and the outliersAllianz Research2 Heavy political agenda to test global economic resilience once more.Global growth bottomed out in H1,but the global manufacturing sector is still in excess supply,and demand remains sluggish especially in the Eurozone.We expect global GDP growth

3、 at+2.8%in 2024 and 2025,with growth slowing to+1.7%in the US and reaching+1.4%in 2025 in the Eurozone.China will continue to manage its growth slowdown(+4.3%in 2025).Corporate earnings towards a recovery?The latest earnings season has delivered mixed results:global revenues grew by+3.5%y/y but reve

4、nues stalled for European corporates(-0.7%y/y)while US and Asia-Pacific firms both reported growth at+4.5%y/y.Nevertheless,58%of global corporates,including 59%of European ones,beat expectations.From a profitability perspective,global earnings grew by+14.7%y/y.US firms reported+10%y/y in earnings gr

5、owth with 69%beating expectations while 53%of European ones also beat expectations despite reporting-2.5%y/y growth.A few sectors mostly related to technology are outperforming,while others struggle.In the US,S&P 500 firms showed moderate growth,but concerns about future earnings are still lingering

6、.In Europe,cyclical sectors and the luxury industry a long-time outperformer are slowing.Banks are holding up well despite heightened economic uncertainties.Looking forward,economic resilience and easing monetary policy could support further growth and the earnings recovery.Looking closer into secto