标银集团（Standard Bank）：2025年全球经济展望报告（英文版）（58页）.pdf

1、 Important disclosures are in the disclosure appendix.For other important disclosures,please refer to the disclosure&disclaimer at the end of this Standard Bank February 2025 2 Contents Contents.2 G10 outlook for 2025.3 EM outlook for 2025.8 Resilient ambitions:Africas economy in a volatile global c

2、limate.16 SA politics in 2025:risks,and opportunities,abound.39 SA:Slowly heading into the right direction.45 Standard Bank February 2025 3 G10 outlook for 2025 Stability at risk 2025 looks set to be another year of steady,if unspectacular,growth amongst developed nations.Advanced countries are like

3、ly to grow by just short of 2%in aggregate,much like the likely 2024 outcome.While growth might be modest,we still should remember that most economies have enjoyed a relatively soft landing after the surge in policy rates in 2022 threatened to tip the advanced economies over a cliff.But risks abound

4、,most of which are associated with the new US administration under Donald Trump.For the spectre of damaging tariffs has come back to haunt global policymakers and financial markets alike.Optimists will point to the fact that the last surge in US protectionism,which started in 2018 during the first T

5、rump administration,did not prevent robust global growth.However,the tariffs were far less draconian than those being talked about by the second Trump administration.At the same time,it is difficult to disentangle the impact tariffs had on the global economy after 2020 because Covid decimated the wo

6、rld economy.Most projections relating to the effects on the US of new tariffs now point to weaker growth,higher inflation,less Fed policy easing(and possibly rate hikes),and a stronger dollar.In short,it does not look good,and it could be even worse for other countries,especially those that trade he