阿波罗全球管理：2024年中美国经济展望白皮书：不稳定的平衡状态（英文版）（28页）.pdf

1、ATLWAA-20240618-3653680-11594556June 2024 Torsten Slk Apollo Chief Economist2024 Mid-Year Outlook:An Unstable Economic Equilibrium 2024 Apollo Global Management,Inc.All Rights Reserved.The US economy has shown more resilience and stamina than most people expected when the Federal Reserve started rai

2、sing interest rates in March 2022.But now,more than two years into the Feds tightening campaign,we find ourselves in a state of unstable equilibrium,with powerful forces pulling the economy in oppositive directions.On the one hand,the lagged effects of Fed rate hikes continue to reign in growth,with

3、 higher borrowing costs biting into over-levered consumers,corporates,and banks alike.The upshot?Rising consumer delinquencies,higher corporate bankruptcies,and increased pressure on some banks balance sheets,especially smaller regional banks.On the other hand,the Fed“pivot”in December 2023 triggere

4、d an easing of financial conditionsbond issuance surged,M&A activity awakened,risky assets rallied,and bond spreads tightened meaningfully.These easier conditions have at least partly neutralized the effects of the Fed hikes,paving the way for a reacceleration in both economic growth and inflation.W

5、hich force is likely to win this economic tug of war?Given the current underlying strength of the US economy,we believe that easier financial conditions will continue to offset the effects of the Fed rate hikes,at least for the next three quarters,driven by strong consumer spending(particularly on s

6、ervices),still-high government spending(as a result of several recent spending bills),still-strong aggregate corporate earnings,and the“wealth effect”triggered by rising asset prices.As a result,we expect US economic growth to come in above consensus in 2024,at 2.5%,on the back of a still-strong emp