安联（Allianz）：2024热带气旋对全球经济的连锁反应研究报告（英文版）（27页）.pdf

1、09 October 202404Tropical cyclones:A looming threatAllianz ResearchThe global economic ripple 20Building resilience11Case study:Taiwaneffect of cyclonesAllianz ResearchTropical cyclones(TCs),are among the most destructive extreme weather events globally,causing an average of 43 deaths and USD78mn in

2、 economic damages daily.In the US,the economic costs have escalated dramatically,with the decade from 2010 to 2019 witnessing USD731bn in losses due to super-hurricanes Harvey,Irma and Maria.The current decade has already incurred USD460bn in damages,double the total losses from 1980 to 1999.Global

3、warming,increasing urbanization and the concentration of residents in densely populated coastal areas are set to worsen the impacts of tropical cyclones.Under most emission scenarios,except for the low-emission pathway(RCP2.6),the population exposed to tropical cyclones is expected to rise significa

4、ntly by 2100.In a hothouse world,“the number of affected people could increase by 23%by 2050 and 84.2%by 2100.While immediate economic losses from tropical cyclones are evident,the ripple effects on global supply chains and maritime trade often go unnoticed.Ports,which handle about 80%of global trad

5、e,face significant disruptions due to extreme weather,leading to costly downtime and widespread economic consequences.Major events such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 shut down the Port of New Orleans for nearly four months,causing global grain shortages and spiking commodity prices.For instance,in 20

6、23,tropical cyclones caused 117 days of port downtime globally.As climate change intensifies,these ripple effects are projected to worsen,with port-related export value at risk increasing by up to+38%to USD312bn.Taiwan serves as a valuable case study due to its critical role in global supply chains