万事达卡（Mastercard）：2025年全球经济展望报告：驾驭变革（英文版）（32页）.pdf

1、1The global economy has admirably navigated through a series of shocks over the past few years.With inflation nearly back on track across many economies and central banks recalibrating policy,the Mas-tercard Economics Institute(MEI)believes it is time for the economy to shift gears once again.MEI ex

2、pects the global economy in 2025 to be defined by shifts in monetary policy,fiscal policy and a move toward equilibrium rates for growth and inflation.Here are the key economic forecasts for 2025:While there is a common narrative around the world,it is crucial to recognize the important nuances by r

3、egion and country.Our regional sections highlight these differences.MEI forecasts 3.2%global GDP growth in 2025,following a 3.1%pace in 2024.Growth is expected to remain strong in the U.S.,India,and the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC),with modest expansion in Europe and much of Latin America and the C

4、aribbean(LAC).In contrast,MEI expects a gradual stabilization in the Chinese Mainland on increased policy stimulus.Inflation eased significantly across the major economies in 2024,driven by lower pric-es for durable goods and easing inflation for nondurable goods.While tariffs continue to pose upsid

5、e risks to goods prices,moderating wage growth is expected to ease inflation in select services industries.MEI forecasts trimmed global inflation at 3.2%(removing the top and bottom 10%outliers)and average weighted inflation for G10 countries at 2.4%.Consumers remain empowered as innovation and digi

6、talization in the retail sector provide them with more choice and businesses with greater operational efficiency.MEI expects basket shifts;with lower prices and declining interest rates,spending on big-ticket items electronics,furniture and appliances will improve.While pent-up demand for experience