澳大利亚肉类及畜牧业协会：2025年澳大利亚牛业前瞻报告（英文版）（11页）.pdf

1、Page 1Industry projections 2025 Australian cattle MarchIndustry projections 2025 Australian cattleMLAs Market intelligence .auKEY POINTSKEY 2025 NUMBERS In 2025 the national herd is forecast to ease due to another year of elevated slaughter reaching 8.5m head.Record production and exports are expect

2、ed once again in 2025 as carcase weights remain high.Global demand will stay strong due to reduction in supply from a rebuilding US herd.*Graphic illustrates year-on-year changeSlaughter:8.54 million headProduction:2.62 million tonnes cwtCarcase weights:307 kg/headHerd:30.1 million headSummaryVaried

3、 climatic conditions across Australia have contributed to herd stability over the past 18 months.MLA projections indicate that southern states will continue to turn-off large numbers of cattle due to tough seasonal conditions in large production areas,driving a decline in the national herd through t

4、o June 2025.Conversely,northern Australia experienced a strong wet season in 2024,strengthening the northern herd and supporting production.However,models suggest conditions in the north could shift over the forecasted period,supporting projections that turn-off will remain high,resulting in three y

5、ears of herd reduction.Producer concern remains focused on production costs.Businesses that have invested in efficiency measures have experienced some relief,however rising input costs such as labour,fuel,transport and utilities continues to constrain profitability.Emerging concerns regarding compli

6、ance costs,rates and market volatility may also contribute to future uncertainty within the sector.Global demand for beef remains strong.A continued reduction in the United States(US)herd,with varying forecasts of a rebuild,will sustain US demand for Australian lean beef and preserve access to high