Gallagher Re：2025年第一季度全球自然灾害与气候报告：经济损失与保险影响分析（英文版）（38页）.pdf

1、Natural Catastrophe and Climate ReportPreliminary OverviewQ1 2025Executive Summary 3Global Overview 5Conversation Starter:Q1 2025 10Weather/Climate Review 13Major Event Reviews 19Appendix 32Report Authors 383Executive SummaryWhile the catastrophe losses in Q1 2025 were notably elevated due to the Ca

2、lifornia wildfires,there was little sign the fires would stress the(re)insurance market given the volume of capital available(USD769 billion through the end of 2024).The losses are expected to be more of an earnings event with implications for the United States(US)market renewals,rather than one tha

3、t affects global renewal cycles.However,the losses were large enough to erode a notable portion of reinsurers 2025 natural catastrophe budgets,with much of the calendar year(including historical peak loss months)yet to come.Since 2000,an average 14%of annual losses have taken place in Q1,26%in Q2,44

4、%in Q3 and 16%in Q4.As the spring and summer months(Q2 and Q3)begin across the Northern Hemisphere,this often brings a more volatile period for weather-related activity.The US,which is the insurance industrys most active and expensive market,becomes a particular point of focus for severe convective

5、storm(SCS)activity,drought,and the potential for landfalling hurricane events.Europe and Asia also enter peak months for possible large-scale disasters and/or monsoon seasons.Forecast models indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions should remain until the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season,with a n

6、ear equal chance of ENSO-neutral or weak La Nia conditions in place by the end of calendar year 2025.NOAA currently projects that 2025 has a 99.9%chance of ending as one of the Top 5 warmest years on record.Global economic losses:USD110 billion;third-costliest Q1 dating to 2000 and well above the de