国际货币基金组织（IMF）：2025美国贸易伙伴对美国关税政策的应对策略研究报告（英文版）（42页）.pdf

1、Trade Partners Responses to US Tariffs Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta WP/25/147 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily r

2、epresent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2025 JUL*We are grateful to Diego Cerdeiro,Kenneth Kang,Martin Sommer,and participants at the IMF internal seminar and Banque deFrance“International Trade and Industrial Policy in A changing World”conference for useful comments and

3、discussions.The viewsexpressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMFmanagement.2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/147 IMF Working Paper Strategy,Policy&Review Trade Partners Responses to US Tariffs Prepared by Lore

4、nzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta*Authorized for distribution by Martin Sommer July 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily

5、 represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.ABSTRACT:Recently announced and enacted US tariffs reduce partners access to the US market and lead to trade diversion.Impacted countries may respond in(at least)three ways:imposing retaliatory tariffs on the US,resorting to indus

6、trial policy to support their producers,and/or signing trade agreements to find new market access opportunities.Relying on a quantitative trade model,we study the trade and welfare implications of these policy responses.Retaliation hurts US exports,can improve the terms of trade,but also creates dis