Atradius：2025全球能源展望报告：油气依赖国在能源转型中具备韧性（英文版）（26页）.pdf

1、 April 2025 Atradius Energy Outlook Hydrocarbon states Hydrocarbon states resilient to shifting resilient to shifting energy mixenergy mix ATRADIUS ENERGY OUTLOOK-APRIL 2025 i Table of Contents Executive summary ii 1.Energy mix:a new sense of realism 1 1.1 Another record year 2 1.2 Realism,expectati

2、ons and hope 2 1.3 Lower energy intensity 3 1.4 Electrification taking off 4 1.5 Phasing out fossil energy 4 1.6 Government,investments and technology 5 1.7 Not all lost,sense of realism needed 6 2.Oil market outlook:steady as she goes 8 2.1 Spare capacity helps keep markets resilient 9 2.2 Demand f

3、or oil to peak and plateau in coming decade 9 2.3 Oil supply is robust 10 2.4 Steady baseline price outlook with high downside risk under NZE scenario 11 3.Gas market outlook:fragile equilibrium 12 3.1 Relative stabilisation of gas prices 13 3.2 Gas demand peaks around 2030 13 3.3 Supply:Middle East

4、 expands its position 14 3.4 Gas trade:LNG making further inroads 15 3.5 Gas prices decline amid strong LNG growth 15 4.Country risk:hydrocarbon states resilient to shifting energy mix 16 4.1 Fuel dependency hydrocarbon states is gradually declining 17 4.2 Diversification of fiscal revenues is the b

5、iggest challenge 18 4.3 Financial weaknesses make some countries vulnerable to oil and gas price shocks 18 4.4 Limited country risk impact in STEPS 19 4.5 Fossil fuel suppliers of last resort 21 4.6 Conclusion 22 ATRADIUS ENERGY OUTLOOK-APRIL 2025 ii Executive summary 1.Energy mix:a new sense of rea

6、lism In this outlook we observe that the energy transition is facing considerable headwinds,while climate change continues to impose itself,with another record year of global temperatures in 2024.The COP29 in Baku failed to come up with convincing results regarding financing of the energy transition