汇丰：韩国保险行业研究：2025年二季度前瞻：盈利增速缓；监管松绑与股东回报预期升温-250716（英文版）（26页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Seoul Securities Branch View HSBC Global Research at:h

2、ttps:/ The 20theditionof the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewHesitant bulls of summer Total net income of insurers under our coverage to drop 13.5%y-o-y in 2Q25e,4%below consensus,due to rising loss ratios We expect most regulatory uncertainties to be resolved and new business CSM growth to rebound

3、in 2Q25e Retain Buy on SFM,SL and DBI;Hold on HMF and HL;raise TPs;TSRs of insurers to be enhanced by the govt policy 2Q25e preview decreasing insurance profit but increasing investment profit We expect 2Q25 net income of five Korean insurers under our coverage to add up to KRW2.1trn(down 13.5%y-o-y

4、,up 4.1%q-o-q;see exhibit 2)due to falling insurance profit(down 24.4%y-o-y).Auto profits will likely decline due to rising loss ratios caused by premium cuts in four consecutive years and P&C profits are likely to decline due to damages from forest fire and Kumho tire factory fire incidents.Experie

5、nce variance profits will likely decline as well due to rising loss ratios.But we expect CSM(contractual service margin)amortization to remain stable due to rising new business CSM thanks to rebounding new business CSM multiples.Of note,all insurers raised premiums in April(source:Kbanker,3 April 20

6、25).And due to rising KOSPI,insurers investment profits should remain stable or slightly increase q-o-q.In particular,we expect SFM to reflect one-off gains of KRW100bn from real estate fund disposal.Easing regulations:In 2023-24,regulations were strengthened as new frameworks were introduced to uni