泰国大城银行研究中心：2025年泰国洪水风险评估与经济影响分析报告（英文版）（17页）.pdf

1、CoverResearch IntelligenceFlood 2025:Risks and ImpactsAugust 2025Krungsri Research2Flood 2025:Risks and ImpactsChaiwat SowcharoensukSenior A+662 296 2000 Ext.50880IntroductionInitially,global climate conditions in early 2025 were in an ENSO-Neutral state.However,for the second half of the year,Krung

2、sri Research has evaluated three potential ENSO scenarios,primarily using the Oceanic Nio Index(ONI).The ONI is expected to decline toward a negative neutral state and subsequently transition to a La Nia phase.Combined with analyses from other relevant indices-such as the Southern Oscillation Index(

3、SOI),Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index(SAMOI),and Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)-these indicators suggest that for the rest of 2025,Thailand is likely to experience above-average rainfall and stronger winds.Considering the potential for tropical cyclones,the influence of loca

4、l monsoons,and current dam water levels,areas at high risk of flooding include the North,Northeast,and Upper Central regions(in Q3),as well as the Thailand Southern Gulf Coast region(in Q4).The Lower North,which serves as a major waterway,and the Central region,a flood-prone and receiving area for w

5、ater,are particularly vulnerable.A flood event would cause widespread damage to agricultural areas,buildings,households,machinery,consumer goods,transportation routes,and public utilities.Krungsri Research anticipates that the total flooded area in 2025 will be approximately 9.5 million rai,resultin

6、g in asset and property damage of about THB 3.7 billion.Damage to agricultural products is estimated at THB 19.9 billion(base case),bringing the total combined damage to THB 23.6 billion,or approximately-0.13%of GDP.Unless explicitly stated otherwise,this publication and all material therein is unde