汇丰HSBC：东盟股票策略研究：越南领跑 五只精选股票组合-250829（英文版）（23页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Easing for growth.The recently concluded results season underscored a soft growth environment across EM ASEAN in 1H25,with 41

2、%of companies missing estimates.Three central banks in the region,namely Indonesia,Thailand and Philippines cut rates by 25bp each this month.With risk to growth remaining a key concern,central banks in ASEAN are likely to stay dovish.The accommodative monetary policy,together with a better disburse

3、ment of fiscal budget,should help to restore some growth,especially in markets such as Indonesia and Thailand.Consumer,the worst performing sector in 1H,should see some recovery on the back of improving sentiment in 2H,in our view.Despite some selling down in Singapore(+1.5%MTD),ASEAN remained in th

4、e green in August with Vietnam(+11.9%MTD)leading the pack,on the back of positive surprises from GDP growth and expectations of an EM upgrade by FTSE.Beyond the EM upgrade.Vietnams 2Q25 GDP surprised to the upside at 8%,bringing 1H25 to a decade-high of 7.52%.Frontloading of trades,increasing constr

5、uction and services supported the growth.The land and capital markets reform that came into effect in 2025,together with the relaxing of approval of infrastructure has led to robust credit growth of 9.9%since Dec 2024.Infrastructure spending more than doubled in 7M25.We believe the much faster tempo

6、 of approval and execution,together with strong real estate and stock markets could help to change consumer sentiment,driving growth for the underperforming consumer sector in 2H25.Our five stock ideas:CIT,ISAT,MSN,SE,TNB.We expect a strong dividend payout for CIT,backed by sizable divestments on to