安联（Allianz）：2026-2027年全球破产展望报告：别低头！（英文版）（32页）.pdf

1、Allianz Research21 October 2025Global Insolvency Outlook 2026-27:Dont look down!Allianz Research2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-5 Executive SummaryPage 9-142025:Another global increasePage 15-19 2026 2027:Mostly ebbing but persisting at high levelsPage 6-8 No tariff blow for firms(so far)Page 20-30

2、Regional outlooksPage 31 Statistical Appendix21 October 2025 Trade rerouting and(energy)deflation have prevented tariffs from unleashing the wave of corporate insolvencies many feared.Since early 2025,the Trump administrations sweeping import duties(11%effective rate in August;14%likely by year-end)

3、have reshaped global trade flows without triggering a surge in US insolvencies.Large firms were cushioned by foreign exporters price moderation and the widespread rerouting of goods through third countries such as India and Vietnam,which kept costs in check.Tariffs have also shielded US domestic fir

4、ms against foreign competition.Over the first half of 2025,we estimate that tariffs contributed to decrease insolvencies by-4pps while a positive demand effect managed to offset most of the negative effects from increasing input costs for US firms,resulting in a modest+4%increase overall.Nevertheles

5、s,as mitigation strategies wear thin and tariff pass-through increases,while demand is expected to slow down,we foresee a catch-up of insolvencies in the next quarters.The US is likely to end 2025 with a+9%increase.Countries whose economies lean heavily on exports could still feel the pinch.We find

6、that decreasing exports leads to rising insolvencies in countries such as Canada,France,Spain and the Netherlands.In the worst-case scenario,Canada could face an extra 1,900 insolvent companies,France+6,000,Spain up to+2,900 and the Netherlands+700.In contrast,we find negligible impact from lower ex