美世咨询（Mercer）：2026年全球经济与市场展望报告：重塑（英文版）（21页）.pdf

1、Economic and market outlook 2026ReshapingA business of Marsh McLennanEconomic and Market Outlook 20262Reshaping Executive summaryBy Rupert Watson,Global Head of Economics and Dynamic Asset Allocation,Mercer 2025 has felt like a hugely consequential year,and 2026 is likely to follow suit.President Tr

2、ump seems to have put the US on a different path to that trod since 1945,ripping up the old economic consensus.The aftermath of this administration will be felt for years to come,and its success will only be able to be fully judged decades from now.The explosive growth of artificial intelligence(AI)

3、may herald the start of a new era,although its consequences are unclear at this stage.All we can say with certainty is that it is likely to matter from an economic and financial market perspective.Of course,as Yogi Berra once said,“its tough to make predictions,especially about the future,”but as in

4、vestors we must try,and our annual outlook offers our thoughts on the global economy and markets.In 2025,the two big developments were President Trumps trade agenda,which,after much alarm at the time,seems to have had only a modest impact on growth,and the ongoing AI boom.The former may fade further

5、 into the background as an influence on the global economy,while AI will continue to loom large.We expect the global economy to strengthen a little in 2026 as trade headwinds fade and monetary and fiscal policy loosens at the margin.In the US,we are likely to see the continued slow pass-through of t

6、ariffs to consumer prices,hurting real income and thus real consumption.However,the One Big Beautiful Bill Act(OBBBA)1 should provide fiscal support,while strong equity markets over the last few years should further improve household balance sheets,providing more spending power.Lower interest rates